In my most recent post I showed that the number of cases of Covid-19 in England is doubling roughly every 14 days, not every 7 days as falsely claimed yesterday by Patrick Vallance.
See Did Patrick Vallance and Chris Whitty lie to the public in their briefing yesterday?
Patrick Vallance hinted at 50,000 cases a day by mid October, if the false claim of a 7 day doubling time were to continue.
The Government's own data show that the Covid-19 epidemic is increasing but that it is doubling at a much slower rate - roughly every 14 days.
If the number of cases continues to double roughly every 14 days then we can expect around 19,000 cases per day in England in mid October, not the 50,000 cases publicised by Patrick Vallance.
It seems to me that Boris Johnson is likely later today to announce measures relating to Covid-19 based on a false claim.
For Boris Johnson to do so risks further undermining any remaining credibility that he may have.
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