Schools across the United Kingdom should be closed now!
In fact, they should have been closed last week or the week before.
Boris Johnson and his advisers have been persistently reluctant to close schools.
In my opinion that refusal is based on a misunderstanding of the modelling of the epidemic.
Why should schools be closed now?
We know that Coronavirus cases double every 3-5 days. Every week the cases increase by 3-fold or 4-fold.
If schools had been closed a week ago, the number of infected children coming into contact with grandparents would be half or less of the number if schools were closed today.
Next week the number of infected children coming into close contact with grandparents will be 3 or 4 times as large compared to a comprehensive closure of schools today.
Similarly, the number of NHS staff who would have had to leave work last week would have been a problem but as the numbers of Coronavirus cases in hospital grows, the effect in hospitals of each missing parent is greater than it was a week ago.
By postponing school closures Boris Johnson and his advisers have exposed more elderly to the disease and caused a larger than necessary effect on hospital staff.
Too little! Too late!
This is an example of Boris Johnson's delays in dealing with the Coronavirus causing an increase in avoidable deaths, albeit in this case likely a fairly minor one.
18 March 2020
Three new blogs on the Coronavirus epidemic
Today I'm starting three new blogs relating to the Coronavirus epidemic.
The first blog, "Surviving Coronavirus" aims to focus on practical questions about how to stay safe and stay alive in a situation of radical uncertainty.
This second blog focusses on bigger picture issues relating to how Boris Johnson and those advising him have handled (and are handling) the Coronavirus epidemic.
I have grave concerns about the competence and honesty of Boris Johnson and his advisers.
The third blog is called "Corona Shock" and attempts to scratch the surface of understanding the profound, indeed revolutionary, impact of the Coronavirus epidemic on life across the planet.
The first blog, "Surviving Coronavirus" aims to focus on practical questions about how to stay safe and stay alive in a situation of radical uncertainty.
This second blog focusses on bigger picture issues relating to how Boris Johnson and those advising him have handled (and are handling) the Coronavirus epidemic.
I have grave concerns about the competence and honesty of Boris Johnson and his advisers.
The third blog is called "Corona Shock" and attempts to scratch the surface of understanding the profound, indeed revolutionary, impact of the Coronavirus epidemic on life across the planet.
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